From: iang at systemics dot com (Ian Grigg)
Subject:  [unknown - original lost - this is an internal version] 
Date: 12th September, 2001
To: Digital Bearer Settlement List <>

Interesting day for ... everything.  Rather than wax on lyrical
about ... everything, I'll go out on a limb.

Here are my predictions.

1.  much stuff will occur in the name of eliminating the risk
of terrorism.  It will achieve virtually nothing.

2.  Today's attacks where cheap.  I'll say that again:  Cheap!

A small team on each plane armed with carton knives.

Don't believe me?  Try and work out for yourself how easy it
is to to get weapons on a plane.  It's easy.  Once the weapons
are on board, you can control the plane.

How hard is it to fly a plane?  Well, to land and take off is
hard.  To fly?  Easy.

And, notice how (as one observant poster said, not me) the
planes had all the same cockpit layout.  Wanna take a bet
that the terrorists had some flight simulator or actual time
in a 767?  Or, how good is Flight Simulator?

3.  The Americans will talk about how it was so expensive.

That's cognitive dissonance.  They just don't like the thought
of being hit so effectively by such a cheap attack.  Welcome to
the world of terrorism.  I remember arriving for my first day
in Madrid, back in 91 or so... and having 3 bombs go off that
day.  That was an exceptional day, but, it is everpresent.  You
learn to live with it.

2.  some stuff that will be tried:

   *  armoured doors to the cockpit, with timed locks and CCTV.
   *  armed guards on flights.
   *  face recognition software in airports.
   *  remote control of the planes, triggered on dual-keys at FAA.
   *  total programmed control of the planes.

3.  None of it will work.  Humans are smarter than systems.  They
will remain so.  Luckily.

4.  The markets will be a bit volatile.  But, they will bounce
back.  Prices will accomodate.  There will be no huge rush into
gold.  Those who sought to profit by the tragedy will be shown
to be the charlatans that they are.

5.  The economy won't notice.  Sure, this might be a trigger
point, but, compare the facts:  banks lay off more staff than
were in those towers whenever they have a bad quarter.

OK, so they would have picked and chosen.  But, fundamentally,
the losses we saw today are not enough to change the economy.

America is a big place.  Expect it not to notice, economically

6.  Morgan Stanley suffered big time, 3,500 people worked in the
WTC.  This is a body blow for a company, they may not survive,
they may get taken over.

7.  American and United also will suffer.  Expect consolidations.
Their staff will be wracked with recriminations, shock, trauma.
Americans -- the people -- will leave off plane travel for the
next year or so.

8.  For the rest of the companies and markets, it is business as
usual.  Peace will break out.  Markets will mark, companies will

9.  The only thing that can address the core issue of the
vulnerability of big planes to terrorism is the size of the
planes.  Expect to see renewed interest in personal jets.  I
don't mean the executive style jets, I mean the new generation
of personal transports coming onto the market, the ones were
you and I get to fly our own jet just like we drive our own

10.  Terrorists will have an unhappy bunch of years, as all sorts
of things will be done to them.

11.  A lot of other people will have an unhappy bunch of years,
as they are accused of being terrorists, like terrorists, near
to terrorists, or acting like terrorists.  That might include

12.  DBS is dead.  Actually, it was near death before, I've now
counted three (yes 3) serious efforts in the last 2 years to
mount DBS systems.  All foundered on the rock of no support from
the financial community.  All foundered on those magical words

13.  Any financial innovation that is remotely new will be
examined with a fine toothcomb.

14.  Even traceable payment systems will have a hard time of it.

I'm a bit unhappy about this point, as we sell a nice, traceable
nymous system that wouldn't really be much use for terrorism.  But, 
I have to face facts.  It was hard enough to sell these systems in
the past, it will be even harder in the future.

One might consider that it is just lucky we, as software designers,
didn't bet the farm on DBS.

It is not.   No luck here, that we are now planning on being
traceable for our systems.  Nor a matter of terrorism.  Simply
put, a traceable system is the only one that can survive external
threats of this nature.  That's always been our viewpoint.

15.  There is nothing required to be done to distribute the
markets and the economy more.  They are already distributed.

That's why we still got to eat tonight, and why the planes will
be flying (wednesday?) and the markets will re-open.  This is
not systemic risk.  The more companies are free to chose to
diversify risk, the more they do.  London trading was fine
today.  Tomorrow, NASDAQ should open, I'd predict.  NYSE might
be slower.

16.  Even the dead count is not extraordinary, if sad and

That sort of number, and we are looking at 20k or so, happens
every year somewhere around the world.  Floods, earthquakes,
famine, war.

This time it happened in a rich country.  This time it happened
in America.  These are much rarer events, but, honestly, is
that our good luck or our bad luck?

[author's note:  the following point 17. related to
a project that was then internal and confidential, so
this part was snipped from the published email.]

17.  Out of this disaster, what can be done to improve things?

Well, and here I go further out on a limb and start sawing.

Engagement.  Replacement.  Economy.  Get that capitalism out
to the people who's lives have made them do this.

Every terrorist war is part of the Che Guevara phased cycle.
From memory, it is something like terrorism, guerrilla warfare,
buildup, open war.  It is all based on building your own
infrastuctural support for your future army.

The solution is simple.  Give those people a good life.  Get
some good things to them.  Get them some industry, some product,
some economy.  Some infrastructure, some telecoms.  Give them
an honest way to earn food.  Give them some finance, some
money, some investments that will return, not flee.

The history of warfare -- including terrorism -- shows that if
the people are happy, they don't support the war.  Give them
something to be proud of.  Give them some of what we in the
OECD take for granted.

Give them PicoIPO.